Didi shares indicated down 20% on Chinese regulatory crackdown

Didi shares indicated down 20% on Chinese regulatory crackdown by Saxo Group
Didi shares are down 20% in pre-market trading as Chinese regulators have ordered the company’s app to be removed app stores over national security concerns over how the company handles privacy data of its users.

Didi Global, the Chinese version of Uber, was the second biggest Chinese IPO following Alibaba and even IPO’ed on the day of the 100-year anniversary of the CCP, but the celebration from last week has quickly faded. It turns out that China’s regulatory agency for cybersecurity asked Didi to postpone its IPO over national security concerns three months ago, but that Didi pursued the IPO anyway. One of the concerns was that Didi would be forced in an US IPO to reveal vendors and other critical information that could expose the company and its half billion users, mostly Chinese citizens, according to Bloomberg news. Chinese regulators have also ordered Didi’s app to be removed from app stores in China. Investors are not liking this news sending shares down 20% in pre-market trading below its recent IPO price.

The regulatory crackdown of Didi follows a series of Chinese regulatory actions taken against Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, and Baidu, which in the end also postponed the highly anticipated IPO of Ant Group (the payments arm of Alibaba) in the very last minute. While successful companies are a national pride for China it also comes with security concerns over competition, consumer protection (both in terms of fair prices and privacy data handling), and market power. The wider concern is that China’s new trajectory on regulating the technology sector will impact longer term profitability. Investors have sold out of Chinese technology stocks with our China Consumer & Technology basket down 3.2% for the month extending the declines from the past months. The China Consumer & Technology basket is now together with Gaming the only two themes that are down for the year.

While news sentiment and regulation are not tailwinds for Chinese technology companies, the valuation and growth prospects of these companies should over time pull investors back into the fold. In two separate research notes, here and here, we described back in May that the largest Chinese technology companies are becoming very attractive on valuation relative to their US peers and that investors will eventually see that valuations justify the regulatory risks. Our China Consumer & Technology is shown below and as we have said before, if investors want to minimize regulatory risks in China that should be looking at the consumer-oriented companies instead like Anta Sports, the Chinese version of Nike, as these companies are less driven by consumer data and technology and more about distribution and brands.

Name Industry Market Cap (USD mn.) Sales growth (%) EPS growth (%) Diff to PT (%) 5yr return
Tencent Holdings Ltd Gaming & social media 690,614 27.4 24.1 36.7 221.2
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd E-commerce 590,346 40.7 8.7 35.0 174.4
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd Beverages 391,061 9.9 10.3 18.4 577.6
Meituan E-commerce 228,037 42.0 NA 28.6 NA
Pinduoduo Inc E-commerce 149,392 133.7 52.0 39.8 NA
Kuaishou Technology Social media 91,515 50.2 NA 82.8 NA
JD.com Inc E-commerce 118,841 33.3 112.9 34.7 270.6
China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd Duty free goods 85,002 47.4 290.2 33.2 1,195.7
Midea Group Co Ltd Household appliances 74,783 18.4 17.8 48.2 217.8
Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food Co Ltd Food seasoning manufacturer 76,609 19.2 23.1 20.9 516.7
Xiaomi Corp Smartphone manufacturer 83,647 28.9 -4.0 29.5 NA
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co Ltd ** Video surveillance 87,525 19.1 12.3 11.2 316.9
Baidu Inc Online search & advertising 69,554 6.5 30.9 56.2 20.4
NetEase Inc Gaming 76,029 24.6 -17.4 18.9 223.7
BYD Co Ltd Car manufacturer (EV & ICE) 100,442 51.9 376.8 2.5 393.6
KE Holdings Inc Housing transaction platform 55,794 86.9 NA 55.9 NA
NIO Inc Car manufacturer (EV) 82,581 202.3 37.9 20.5 NA
Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai Air conditioners 46,621 1.5 7.0 49.7 NA
Nongfu Spring Co Ltd Beverages 56,402 -4.8 7.5 19.8 NA
WuXi AppTec Co Ltd Drug manufacturing technology 66,174 37.7 59.0 13.6 NA
ANTA Sports Products Ltd Sports apparel 61,748 4.7 -1.6 1.0 1,192.3
JD Health International Inc Online healthcare platform 42,723 78.8 NA 37.8 NA
Haier Smart Home Co Ltd Household appliances 34,547 4.5 134.8 53.7 NA
Foxconn Industrial Internet Co Ltd Networking equipment 37,577 10.2 7.0 44.6 NA
Will Semiconductor Co Ltd Shanghai Semiconductors & image sensory 43,190 50.1 228.4 14.7 NA
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp ** Semiconductor foundry 34,174 19.3 144.0 17.4 252.4
Luxshare Precision Industry Co Ltd Connectivity manufacturer 49,398 38.6 34.7 13.1 666.9
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd Car manufacturer (EV & ICE) 38,035 10.2 42.2 15.8 31.0
Haidilao International Holding Ltd Restaurant chain 29,071 7.8 -91.4 33.9 NA
BOE Technology Group Co Ltd Display panels manufacturer 32,721 40.4 793.5 NA 115.5
Tencent Music Entertainment Group Music streaming 25,609 17.9 2.6 53.9 NA
Shenzhou International Group Holdings Ltd Textile manufacturing 36,194 1.6 0.1 8.6 427.6
XPeng Inc Car manufacturer (EV) 36,997 216.9 NA 12.9 NA
Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd Optical instruments 32,765 0.4 19.4 0.7 820.5
Yum China Holdings Inc Restaurant chain 27,881 10.2 20.5 9.2 NA
Trip.com Group Ltd Online travel agency 22,623 -45.1 NA 30.1 -11.4
Focus Media Information Technology Co Ltd Offline advertising solutions 19,068 20.0 238.9 64.7 -7.5
ZTE Corp 5G & telecommunication 20,980 18.0 125.8 21.2 125.5
Oppein Home Group Inc Household furniture manufacturer 12,682 30.2 43.9 29.3 NA
Topsports International Holdings Ltd Sports retailer 9,805 6.9 4.2 18.9 NA
Aggregate / median 3,868,756 19.6 23.6 28.6 252.4

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
* Sales and EPS growth is measured on 12-month trailing figures, Diff to PT is the difference between consensus price target and the current price in %

Topics: Equities China Technology Alibaba Consumer Spending