Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: Welcome to WK # 31… Erns, Amazon, Beyond Meat, Fed, US GDP, CH PMIs
Top of Mind…
- Happy Monday Folks & Welcome to WK # 31…
- Hope everyone had yet another fabulous wkd & for those of you already kicking your shoes off for some holidays in the Northern Hemisphere summer – enjoy!
- Well deserved, just how part of training, is not training. Part of working on your craft, is not working on your craft – incidentally all of those (combined) are productive, yet exclusively are counter-productive.
- What kind of week are you trying to have?
- Economics: There is a GDP theme this wk, with figures out of Germany & the US that should mark the first 2Q GDP readings – so think China 1Q = 2Q in US & EZ, given the lag in the C19 contagion. On the US, the mkt is expects a -34% contraction, from a -5% for the 1Q. In Germany, -8.5%e vs. -2.2%p. The risk is skewed to the upside given the current sentiment, i.e. mkt interpretation will likely be bullish either way… if the figs. beat, it will be that things are not as bad as they seemed, if they miss, it will be great – more “stimulus” to come.
The US will also see durable goods, personal spending & income, PCE readings as well as consumer confidence numbers. Australia will have a big print with its 2Q inflation due, last print for 1Q was 2.2% headline & 1.8% Core. Building approvals & private sector credit will also be key for down under.
For the rest, flash CPI out of the EZ & official China PMIs (data has continued to generally beat to the upside for the last few months) will also be watched.
- US Earnings: Big one this wk that everyone will be watching will be Amazon due on 30th Jul after-mkt. KVP will also be on the lookout for that asymmetrical min. +5x to +10x BYND play which also reports this wk, alongside a few other names that he will flag separately.
- Central Banks: All about the Fed – Powell did a great job of talking yields down from c. 0.90% bp last time with now new initiatives, outside of guidance… i.e. no rate rises even out to 2022. Will be interesting to see the dance this wk, not quiet the same pressure on yields & we have had a resurgence of C19 in the US compared to last Fed meeting
- Fed Speak: See above
- Holidays: SI is out on Fri Jul 31
- US: Fed, Durable Goods, 1st 2Q GDP reading, Personal Spending & Personal Income, Pending Home Sales, UoM, Chicago PMI
- CH: Final PMIs for mfg. & Serv.
- EZ: GER GDP, Private Loans & Money Supply, Flash CPI + regional CPIs/GDPs
- JP: BoJ Summary of Opinions, BoJ Core CPI, Retail Sales
- UK: Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals, House Prices
- AU: 2Q CPI, Building Approvals, PPI, Private Sector Credit
- NZ: Building Consents, ANZ Biz Confidence
- CA: GDP M/M, IPPI, RMPI
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Start-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.
This is the way
KVP
