We are seeing daily direction changes in US equities, as local cycle support held yesterday and the market rallied smartly, only to fade again in late trading and overnight. Rising crude oil prices are a new source of concern to add to the worst single-day spike yet in natural gas...
It’s Worked for 100 Years… Now This Indicator Says “Buy”
One Simple Indicator to Detect Risk-on Behavior I’m talking about the spread between low-grade corporate bonds and Treasury notes.
FX Update: USD bullish case remains intact, but needs refreshing.
Risk sentiment remains on edge as markets hold their breath on the next moves from China as it returns from holiday at the end of this week, as it waits for the resolution of the US debt ceiling issue, and as it waits for the US jobs report on Friday,...
Equity correction and tail-hedging with market makers
Global equities have corrected a bit more than 5% but the VIX futures curve has not inverted and thus there is more downside for equities if the energy crunch gets worse.German baseload electricity 1-year forward prices are up another 15% this week ending the increase to 320% since the world...
Gold Houlry Moving Towards Bearish Stack
This is the hourly chart of gold. The fast green moving average is pointing down. We note that the intermediate orange is now looking to cross below the slow red EMA. If this happens, it will put all 3 EMAs into bearish formation. If angle and separation then develops it...
USDOLLAR Pullback At Key Fib Levels on Hourly
The chart on the left shows FXCM’s USDOLLAR basket on a daily timeframe. It is in the bullish area between the upper red and upper blue bands. The chart on the right shows its hourly time frame. The greenback has pulled back to the 50%/61.8% Fib levels. If these levels...
Has equity market sell-off really even started?
Today we look at the issues that continue to dog this market, with a fresh rush higher in energy prices across the board in the wake of a OPEC+ meeting, as crude oil prices cleared 7-year highs, the US debt ceiling issue still an open question, Japanese equities deflating on...
Market Quick Take – October 5, 2021
US equities suffered another rocky session yesterday as oil prices rushed to new multi-new year highs in the wake of an OPEC+ meeting sees no change in modest supply increases already scheduled. In Asia, the Japanese equity rally beginning in early September in anticipation of a snap election and new...
This Time is Different
We've had inflation before, but not like this. Which asset classes could thrive in the new negative real rates environment?“Throughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been lending, borrowing, crashing―and recovering―their way through an extraordinary range of financial crises. Each time, the experts have chimed, ‘this time is different’,...
In a world of negative real rates, EM Asia is a beacon of hope
It's time to take a step back from developed markets if you want to find positive yieldsInflation is no transitory joke … Take it from someone who—unlike my peers—was originally in the transitory camp of inflation; after all, the tri-factor meta-trends of ever-lower US yields since the 1980s, deflationary forces...