Cryptocurrencies blasted through the last quarter of 2020, and the total crypto market capitalisation reached record highs - Q1 outlook 2021 Cryptocurrencies blasted through the last quarter of 2020, and the total crypto market capitalisation reached record highs. Bitcoin almost tripled in value over the quarter, followed by many of...
Infrastructure investment gap and hidden inflation
We will have much higher growth resulting from pent-up demand once most of the restrictions and the lockdowns have been materially lifted - Q1 outlook 2021Our first assumption for this year is that we will have much higher growth resulting from pent-up demand once most of the restrictions and the...
Equity investors must embrace the commodity sector during reflation
Last quarter provided a contested US election, yet the best monthly return in global equities since January 1975 with a 12.8% gain - Q1 outlook 2021Last quarter provided a lot of drama with a contested US election, the best monthly return in global equities since January 1975 with a 12.8%...
“Game Over” for Treasury Bonds
This year will prove challenging for bondholders as the negative real policy rate adopted by central banks has reduced downside tail risk on one side but squashed risk premia on the other - Q1 outlook 2021Bonds performed exceptionally well in 2020 as central banks and governments worldwide provided robust policy...
Game of Thrones – Reflation and inequality, 2021’s macro drivers
Inflation may not be visible in central banks' hedonic price indices but in reality it's a different story - Q1 outlook 2021Inflation may not be visible in central banks’ hedonic price indices but in reality it’s a different story. House prices, healthcare, education, childcare – anything you want or need...
China is the North Star of Asia, and North Asia is a proven winner
Bitcoin and crypto currencies cold be winners in Q1 and for the balance of 2021 - Q1 outlook 2021China is the North Star of Asia The title for our Q2 Outlook last year was “China will be the first out of the global storm”. China was the first into the...
Breakout Identified in USDJPY
The Breakout Opportunities system has just sold USDJPY at 103.666. The system recommends entering this trade at any price between 103.552 and 103.729. The signal was issued because the USDJPY has broken its 24-hour low while our Speculative Sentiment Index was at 2.747, suggesting that the USDJPY may have further...
Earnings Watch: Can Tesla growth continue to support valuation?
In today's Earnings Watch we look at the most important earnings to watch this week with Tesla probably being the biggest show in markets as the meteoric rise in Tesla market value is setting the bar high for not disappointing.The Q4 earnings season is in full swing with around 70...
Podcast: Big week ahead for earnings, macro
Today, we delve into the market's positive start to the week and the blitz of big earnings reports ahead, including Wednesday's bonanza of US megacaps reporting. Also, a wrap of the huge correction in the grains market last week and whether it marks a trend change, what is driving the...
COT: Grain longs cut ahead of price correction
Positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock index futures during the week to January 19Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the...