Price is reaction insde our pivot level at 1,816.07 which is in line with -27.2% Fibonacci retracement level, 61.8% Fibonacci extension level and trendline resistance. Price could potentially drop towards support at 1,800 which is in-line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, 78.6% Fibonacci extension level and ascending trendline support. RSI...

Today we look at the speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, at which he waxed about as dovish as was humanly possible in laying out the case that inflation will prove transitory. We challenge that notion and question whether the market reaction on the...

Last night's first TV debate between the three lead candidates (Spitzenkandidaten, in German) have confirmed the current momentum in German election campaign. The SPD is on the rise, overtaking the Greens in most polls, while the CDU/CSU continues its fall from grace. The race is more open than ever. We...

Markets closed last week on a high note after US Federal Reserve Chair Powell firmly stated the case that the recent bout of high inflation will prove transitory, indicating no rush to begin tapering asset purchases, though he agreed with the majority of Fed members who favour starting a tapering...

Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Quasi-Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime. (These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or...

There is potential for rates to fall before they resume their rise later in autumn. Ten-year yields rose this week in the wake of the Jackson Hole Symposium, but a death cross is about to form. In technical analysis, a death cross sends a strong bearish message which could anticipate...

Tail-hedging strategies such as put options and long VIX futures are typically negative carry trades which make them difficult to incorporate in portfolios. We propose a novel approach using publicly listed market makers to tail-hedging portfolios.Most retail investors are heavily exposed to equities because of accessibility, it is cheap to...

Markets were spooked yesterday by the terrorist attack in Kabul, Afghanistan as US and its allied countries attempt to complete the airlift of evacuees by the end of the month. The damage in financial markets was limited and the mood stabilized overnight in Asia. Today the focus is squarely on...

Macro Dragon Reflections - In the latest reflections think piece, KVP takes a look at a few potential pathways & scenarios around the Fed's Jackson Hole event. Including the base case consensus scenario of a conservative & docile Powell, alongside the more interesting tail-side risks to the upside, as well...

Macro Strike - We check-in on the breaking news of the blasts in Afghanistan's Kabul airport, which has left over 70 dead including at least 12 US military personnel. The pentagon & Biden have flagged the attacks come from ISIS-K, an Afghanistan faction of the Islamic Terrorist group, who are...