Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime., Macro Dragon: Question of When, Not If... Top of Mind… So we had the Fed o/n…...
Crude oil weakness emerging following OPEC+ decision
OILUKAUG20 – Brent Crude Oil (August) OILUSJUL20 – WTI Crude Oil (July) XOP:arcx – Oil & Gas Exploration & Production XLE:arcx – Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (Large-cap US energy stocks) ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Crude oil’s behavior following the agreement by OPEC+ members to extend the 9.7 million barrels/day production cut until...
Nasdaq 100 surpasses 10,000 for the first time
Where do US technology stocks go from here?Sentiment remains strong despite yesterday’s declines in equities and investors quickly shrugged the weakness off catapulting the Nasdaq 100 Index above 10,000 after regular trading hours., This morning with equities higher and Nasdaq 100 at 10,000 it worth reflecting on the current situation and...
Market Quick Take – June 10, 2020
STPU:xmil (US Yield Curve Steepening 2-10) and US Sep 10Year Treasury (Sep. 10-year US T-note futures contract) - trading the yield curve in most cases is trading whether the longer end of the curve moves up or down, now that the front-end of the curve has been trading close to...
Macro Dragon: Making Time for the Fed & Yield Curve Control (YCC)
Macro Dragon: Making Time for the Fed & Yield Curve Control (YCC) Top of Mind… Folks, sometimes you reinvent the wheel, other times you use the wheels that others have created., All about the Fed over next 24hrs, would expect markets to be fairly quiet everything else being equal Do...
What will yield-curve control mean for equities?
In the case the Fed hints of yield-curve control (YCC) going the same way as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) introducing YCC in September 2016 and recently Reserve Bank of Australia in March 2020 what would likely be the effect on equities., Since then Japanese equities have underperformed by 18% and...
FX Update: Eyeing the FOMC meeting and yield curve control
Market action has suddenly become decidedly more two-way later in the European morning as markets mull whether the FOMC meeting tomorrow can provide any more fuel for the recent melt-up in risk assets and melt-down in the USD., The hard charging JPY was already a flashing red light over the last...
Yield-curve control could be gold’s best friend
XAUUSD - Spot gold XAGUSD - Spot silver XAUXAG - Gold-Silver ratio GLD:arcx - SPDR Gold Shares ETF GDX:arcx - VanEck Gold Miners ETF ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Global markets await tomorrow’s FOMC meeting with perhaps a bit more excitement than a meeting at this stage in the cycle would normally attract., The reason...
Chart of the Week: The Fed’s balance sheet expansion
At current path, we expect that the Fed’s accommodative stance and unlimited QE will result in its balance sheet reaching about $10tr by the end of the year, which represents roughly 50% of U.S. GDP., After not publishing economic forecasts in March, the FOMC will presumably remain cautious regarding the economy’s...
Taking Stock – Rebounding Risk Assets, Liquidity & YCC
Although the dichotomy bears note, not only with respect to the time decay of economic optimism and liquidity driven markets, but also the long term implications for financial stability and our social fabric., Investors conditioned by the central bank put to “buy the dip” are reaching for yield and piling into...